The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue over southwest Rajasthan and north Gujarat, with predictions of extremely heavy rainfall (around 20 cm) over Saurashtra and Kutch on Monday and Tuesday.
According to the IMD, there has been 9% surplus rainfall in the country since June 1. However, there has been a 20% deficiency in East and Northeast India. There has been a 37% excess in Northwest India, 11% in Central India, and 8% in the Peninsular India.
As forecasted by the IMD, there will be isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim till September 10, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya from September 12-14, and Nagaland and Manipur on September 11 and 12. It has also warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha on September 11 and 12.
The MET Department has said that the monsoon trough is running south of its normal position, and the depression over north Gujarat and the adjoining southwest region of Rajasthan has shifted westwards, further intensifying into a deep depression on Sunday.
In the bulletin, the IMD said, "It moved slowly west-northwestwards and lay centred over southeast Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan and Kutch at 8:30 am on Monday, about 90 km southeast of Chhor (Pakistan), 120 km southwest of Barmer (Rajasthan), 170 km northwest of Radhanpur (Gujarat), 190 km west-Northwest of Jaisalmer (Rajasthan), and 210 km north-northeast of Bhuj (Gujarat). It is very likely to move northwestwards as a deep depression across southeast Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan. Thereafter, it is likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a depression."
An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over the South Punjab and its neighboring areas in the lower tropospheric levels. A trough is moving from cyclonic circulation associated with a deep depression over southeast Pakistan and nearby Rajasthan and Kutch to south Punjab over lower tropospheric levels. Moreover, an upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over the northeast Bay of Bengal, and its adjoining South Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts in the lower and middle tropospheric levels.
Due to these systems, there is heavy to very heavy rainfall expected with heavy showers over the isolated Saurashtra and Kutch regions on September 8 and 9. Moreover, moderate rains and thunderstorms are likely to occur in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh on September 12 and 13.