Bihar elections 2025: What do opinion polls reveal as NDA leads, and Mahagathbandhan faces setback?

According to a recent opinion poll survey conducted by Times Now-JVC, NDA is expected to get a clear, strong lead in the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar. While it might be able to attain an even bigger victory than the last elections, the Mahagathbandhan is likely to face a setback. 

The survey revealed that NDA (the alliance formed by the BJP, Janata Dal, and other parties) might secure 136 seats out of 243 seats in poll-bound Bihar. On the other hand, RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and Congress's Mahagathbandhan, supported by some other allies, might restrict to only 75 seats. 

A party can form a government in Bihar if it secures the 122-seat mark. And if we go by this opinion poll survey, the NDA is projected to take a strong lead. Even the BJP is expected to gain this time. In the last elections, it won 74 seats, while this time it might be able to reach 81. The survey projects the BJP winning on 65 seats and leading on 17. But, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) may face a setback, limited to only 29 seats and leading on 2. Its estimated tally is only 31. 

In 2020, Nitish's party had won 43 seats, taking down its previous tally of 71. If the seats drop by 12, according to the opinion poll survey, then it might be tough for JDU. 

The Mahagathbandhan also appears to be in a weak position, with Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejaswi Yadav's RJD losing big. Out of the 52 seats estimated during this election, it might win 37 and lead on 15. This projection is very low compared to 2020, when RJD won 75 seats and formed the Government. At the same time, Congress's performance is also set to decline. According to the survey, it might get only 10 seats, out of which it will win 8 and lead in 2. This figure is almost half of 2020, when Congress secured 19 seats. The left parties may reach a maximum of 13 seats. 

If we talk about the small parties, the survey revealed that AIMIM might win 3 seats, and Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party may emerge in 2 seats, while contesting in the assembly elections for the first time. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to get only 1 seat. 

A tough fight is expected in the Bhojpur and Seemanchal region, while Tirhut, Ang, and Mithila regions seem to be dominated by the BJP and NDA.