NDA seems set to return to power in Bihar, with stronger Nitish: What trends reveal?

Bihar election results are about to be declared, and trends show NDA emerging victorious, close to registering a record-breaking win. As the NDA seeks to ensure a decisive win, here are three key points to consider. 

Firstly, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to repeat its 2020 performance, even bettering it above 74 seats. This "stronghold" comes in a state where mass, freewheeling politics has dominated the political landscape so far. It has placed a cadre in Bihar, which has been lacking till now. 

Another key point, a strong theme emerging is "the return of Nitish Kumar". The incumbent Chief Minister has been the longest serving ever in the post. Even his party is showing a better performance this time than in 2020, when it could manage to win only 43 assembly seats. 

Nitish's vote bank majorly includes women, who participated in large numbers, and his effective mobilising of the Extremely Backward Class (EBC). And this time, he has got a clear edge over other potential rivals within the NDA, including Chirag Paswan's LJP and several other small parties, which gave him a scare last time. 

Nitish was elected as the Chief Minister of Bihar for the first time in 2020 and has been in power, forming governments with several alliances. He often switched alliances between the BJP and the RJD. He is often addressed as a "flip-flopper" due to his frequent switching here and there. Despite all of it, Nitish has aced survival amid an uncertain political environment. He also emerges to be the one who is "needed" by both alliances. 

Coming over to the Mahagathbandhan, the alliance might prove costly for the RJD, with the Congress contesting on 60+ seats and failing to even move past five. Its claim of "resurgence" will only fall short as it might end up winning fewer than the 19 seats it secured in 2020. And the "friendly fight" on 11 seats also reveals the poor performance of the Congress and its poor ability to keep up the alliances.

NDA has already crossed over 200 seats, with the BJP becoming the largest party in the state, leading in 95 seats. Mahagathbandhan has fallen to 30+ seats only. Now, the one lingering question is whether Nitish Kumar will become the Chief Minister again or not.